Influence of age on the diagnosis of myocardial infarction

The 99th centile of cardiac troponin, derived from a healthy reference population, is recommended as the diagnostic threshold for myocardial infarction, but troponin concentrations are strongly influenced by age. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of cardiac troponin in older patients presenting with suspected myocardial infarction. METHODS: In a secondary analysis of a multicenter trial of consecutive patients with suspected myocardial infarction, we assessed the diagnostic accuracy of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I at presentation for the diagnosis of type 1, type 2, or type 4b myocardial infarction across 3 age groups (<50, 50–74, and ≥75 years) using guideline-recommended sex-specific and age-adjusted 99th centile thresholds. RESULTS: In 46 435 consecutive patients aged 18 to 108 years (mean, 61±17 years), 5216 (11%) had a diagnosis of myocardial infarction. In patients <50 (n=12 379), 50 to 74 (n=22 380), and ≥75 (n=11 676) years, the sensitivity of the guideline-recommended threshold was similar at 79.2% (95% CI, 75.5–82.9), 80.6% (95% CI, 79.2–82.1), and 81.6% (95% CI, 79.8–83.2), respectively. The specificity decreased with advancing age from 98.3% (95% CI, 98.1–98.5) to 95.5% (95% CI, 95.2–95.8), and 82.6% (95% CI, 81.9–83.4). The use of age-adjusted 99th centile thresholds improved the specificity (91.3% [90.8%–91.9%] versus 82.6% [95% CI, 81.9%–83.4%]) and positive predictive value (59.3% [57.0%–61.5%] versus 51.5% [49.9%–53.3%]) for myocardial infarction in patients ≥75 years but failed to prevent the decrease in either parameter with increasing age and resulted in a marked reduction in sensitivity compared with the use of the guideline-recommended threshold (55.9% [53.6%–57.9%] versus 81.6% [79.8%–83.3%]. CONCLUSIONS: Age alters the diagnostic performance of cardiac troponin, with reduced specificity and positive predictive value in older patients when applying the guideline-recommended or age-adjusted 99th centiles. Individualized diagnostic approaches rather than the adjustment of binary thresholds are needed in an aging population

Impact of noncardiac findings in patients undergoing CT coronary angiography:a substudy of the Scottish computed tomography of the heart (SCOT-HEART) trial

Objectives Noncardiac findings are common on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). We assessed the clinical impact of noncardiac findings, and potential changes to surveillance scans with the application of new lung nodule guidelines. Methods This substudy of the SCOT-HEART randomized controlled trial assessed noncardiac findings identified on CCTA. Clinically significant noncardiac findings were those causing symptoms or requiring further investigation, follow-up or treatment. Lung nodule follow-up was undertaken following the 2005 Fleischner guidelines. The potential impact of the 2015 British Thoracic Society (BTS) and the 2017 Fleischner guidelines was assessed. Results CCTA was performed in 1,778 patients and noncardiac findings were identified in 677 (38%). In 173 patients (10%) the abnormal findings were clinically significant and in 55 patients (3%) the findings were the cause of symptoms. Follow-up imaging was recommended in 136 patients (7.6%) and additional clinic consultations were organized in 46 patients (2.6%). Malignancy was diagnosed in 7 patients (0.4%). Application of the new lung nodule guidelines would have reduced the number of patients undergoing a follow-up CT scan: 68 fewer with the 2015 BTS guidelines and 78 fewer with the 2017 Fleischner guidelines; none of these patients subsequently developed malignancy. Conclusions Clinically significant noncardiac findings are identified in 10% of patients undergoing CCTA. Application of new lung nodule guidelines will reduce the cost of surveillance, without the risk of missing malignancy

Multiple cardiac biomarkers to improve prediction of cardiovascular events:Findings from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study

Background: Many studies have investigated whether single cardiac biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction for primary prevention but whether a combined approach could further improve risk prediction is unclear. We aimed to test a sex-specific combined cardiac biomarker approach for cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods: In the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in stored serum using automated immunoassays. Sex-specific Cox models that included SCORE2 risk factors evaluated addition of single and combined biomarkers for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Combined biomarker models were compared to a baseline model that included SCORE2 factors.Results: The study population comprised 18,383 individuals (58.9% women, median age of 48 years [25th-75th percentile, 35-58 years]). During the median follow up of 11.6 (25th-75th percentile, 10.8-13.0) years, MACE occurred in 942 (5.1%) individuals. The greatest increase in discrimination with addition of individual biomarkers to base model was for women GDF-15 and for men NT-proBNP (change in c-index: +0.010 for women and +0.005 for men). For women, combined biomarker models that included GDF-15 and NT-proBNP (+0.012) or GDF-15 and cTnI (+0.013), but not CRP or cTnT, further improved discrimination. For men, combined biomarker models that included NT-proBNP and GDF-15 (+0.007), NT-proBNP and cTnI (+0.006), or NT-proBNP and CRP (+0.008), but not cTnT, further improved discrimination. Conclusions: A combined biomarker approach, particularly the use of GDF-15, NT-proBNP and cTnI, further refined cardiovascular risk estimates.<br/

Sharing a household with children and risk of COVID-19: a study of over 300 000 adults living in healthcare worker households in Scotland

Objective: Children are relatively protected from COVID-19, due to a range of potential mechanisms. We investigated if contact with children also affords adults a degree of protection from COVID-19. Design: Cohort study based on linked administrative data. Setting: Scotland. Study population: All National Health Service Scotland healthcare workers and their household contacts as of March 2020. Main exposure: Number of young children (0–11 years) living in the participant’s household. Main outcomes: COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation, and any COVID-19 (any positive test for SARS-CoV-2) in adults aged ≥18 years between 1 March and 12 October 2020. Results: 241 266, 41 198, 23 783 and 3850 adults shared a household with 0, 1, 2 and 3 or more young children, respectively. Over the study period, the risk of COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation was reduced progressively with increasing numbers of household children—fully adjusted HR (aHR) 0.93 per child (95% CI 0.79 to 1.10). The risk of any COVID-19 was similarly reduced, with the association being statistically significant (aHR per child 0.93; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.98). After schools reopened to all children in August 2020, no association was seen between exposure to young children and risk of any COVID-19 (aHR per child 1.03; 95% CI 0.92 to 1.14). Conclusion: Between March and October 2020, living with young children was associated with an attenuated risk of any COVID-19 and COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation among adults living in healthcare worker households. There was no evidence that living with young children increased adults’ risk of COVID-19, including during the period after schools reopened

Assessing trial representativeness using Serious Adverse Events: An observational analysis using aggregate and individual-level data from clinical trials and routine healthcare data

Background: The applicability of randomised controlled trials of pharmacological agents to older people with frailty/multimorbidity is often uncertain, due to concerns that trials are not representative. However, assessing trial representativeness is challenging and complex. We explore an approach assessing trial representativeness by comparing rates of trial serious adverse events (SAE) to rates of hospitalisation/death in routine care. Methods: This was an observational analysis of individual (125 trials, n=122,069) and aggregate-level drug trial data (483 trials, n=636,267) for 21 index conditions compared to population-based routine healthcare data (routine care). Trials were identified from ClinicalTrials.gov. Routine care comparison from linked primary care and hospital data from Wales, UK (n=2.3M). Our outcome of interest was SAEs (routinely reported in trials). In routine care, SAEs were based on hospitalisations and deaths (which are SAEs by definition). We compared trial SAEs in trials to expected SAEs based on age/sex standardised routine care populations with the same index condition. Using IPD, we assessed the relationship between multimorbidity count and SAEs in both trials and routine care and assessed the impact on the observed/expected SAE ratio additionally accounting for multimorbidity. Results: For 12/21 index conditions, the pooled observed/expected SAE ratio was &lt;1, indicating fewer SAEs in trial participants than in routine care. A further 6/21 had point estimates &lt;1 but the 95% CI included the null. The median pooled estimate of observed/expected SAE ratio was 0.60 (95% CI 0.55–0.64; COPD) and the interquartile range was 0.44 (0.34–0.55; Parkinson’s disease) to 0.87 (0.58–1.29; inflammatory bowel disease). Higher multimorbidity count was associated with SAEs across all index conditions in both routine care and trials. For most trials, the observed/expected SAE ratio moved closer to 1 after additionally accounting for multimorbidity count, but it nonetheless remained below 1 for most. Conclusions: Trial participants experience fewer SAEs than expected based on age/sex/condition hospitalisation and death rates in routine care, confirming the predicted lack of representativeness. This difference is only partially explained by differences in multimorbidity. Assessing observed/expected SAE may help assess the applicability of trial findings to older populations in whom multimorbidity and frailty are common

Short term exposure to air pollution and stroke: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To review the evidence for the short term association between air pollution and stroke. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies Data sources: Medline, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Web of Science searched to January 2014 with no language restrictions. Eligibility criteria: Studies investigating the short term associations (up to lag of seven days) between daily increases in gaseous pollutants (carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone) and particulate matter (&lt;2.5 µm or &lt;10 µm diameter (PM2.5 and PM10)), and admission to hospital for stroke or mortality. Main outcome measures: Admission to hospital and mortality from stroke. Results: From 2748 articles, 238 were reviewed in depth with 103 satisfying our inclusion criteria and 94 contributing to our meta-estimates. This provided a total of 6.2 million events across 28 countries. Admission to hospital for stroke or mortality from stroke was associated with an increase in concentrations of carbon monoxide (relative risk 1.015 per 1 ppm, 95% confidence interval 1.004 to 1.026), sulphur dioxide (1.019 per 10 ppb, 1.011 to 1.027), and nitrogen dioxide (1.014 per 10 ppb, 1.009 to 1.019). Increases in PM2.5 and PM10 concentration were also associated with admission and mortality (1.011 per 10 μg/m3 (1.011 to 1.012) and 1.003 per 10 µg/m3 (1.002 to 1.004), respectively). The weakest association was seen with ozone (1.001 per 10 ppb, 1.000 to 1.002). Strongest associations were observed on the day of exposure with more persistent effects observed for PM2·5. Conclusion: Gaseous and particulate air pollutants have a marked and close temporal association with admissions to hospital for stroke or mortality from stroke. Public and environmental health policies to reduce air pollution could reduce the burden of stroke. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO-CRD42014009225